Norfolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

751
FXUS61 KAKQ 261108
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
708 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion and key messages.

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Chesapeake Bay,
lower James River, and the Atlantic coastal waters north of Cape
Charles for tonight into Friday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above average temperatures today and through midday Friday.

2) A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon and
   evening, bringing quickly falling temperatures and a brief
   round of showers.

3) Cooler temperatures return this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 304 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above average temperatures today and through
midday Friday.

Mostly clear inland this morning, with bkn-sct cirrus deck in
the process of exiting the coastal plain. Temperatures still
look to warm quickly into the mid/upper 70s inland this
afternoon on increasingly gusty SW winds...up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon...with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s toward the
coast. BL remains well-mixed tonight, portending a rather
unseasonably mild night in advance of the cold front. Look for
early morning lows only falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Model guidance from 00z/26 has continued to trend quicker with
the frontal passage, with the front now looking to drop through
the area from from late morning into early evening on Friday.
Have therefore continued to trend a bit cooler across the
northern and central sections, with falling temperatures in
these areas for early/mid afternoon Friday. Therefore, high
temperatures likely struggle to reach 70F across the northern
neck and eastern shore, while areas ahead of the front across
southern VA/NE NC likely rise into the lower to middle 80s, with
a transition zone of more uncertainty in between.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the region Friday afternoon
and evening, bringing quickly falling temperatures and a brief
round of showers.

Given the quicker frontal passage, the window for showers still
looks no greater than 6-8 hours, from as early as late morning
Friday over the far north into Friday evening. Forcing still
looks rather weak, and with zonal flow aloft. QPF with this
system does not look very impressive. That said, the EPS 50th
percentile remains in the 0.25-0.5" range across the northern
tier of the area (along and N/NE of I-64) with 0.1-0.25" farther
S. Meanwhile, GEFS/GEPS have trended up slightly, with the
GEPS/CMC Ensemble very close to the EPS output. Most of the
rainfall is anafrontal, and therefore, thunder chances are quite
limited and mainly across the southern Piedmont counties, where
timing is a bit more favorable (mid to late afternoon).
Temperatures will quickly drop post- frontal Friday afternoon
into Friday evening, with lows Fri night falling into the 30s
and 40s on gusty NNE winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler temperatures return this weekend.

Cool high pressure rebuilds into the region for the upcoming
weekend, with below average temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast highs Saturday look similar to those of Tuesday,
averaging in the upper 40s to mid 50s (mildest inland). These
values are at least 10F below seasonal means. Forecast lows
Saturday night are in the upper 20s to mid 30s, followed by
highs Sunday moderating back to near average with mid 50s to
lower 60s. Also potentially very dry post-frontal, with some
potential fire danger concerns this weekend over southern
portions of the area, if QPF remains minimal. However, this will
be mitigated substantially if QPF is in excess of 0.1" or so.
Ensemble guidance showing PW values of only 25-40% of normal
Saturday and 50-70% of normal by Sunday. High pressure shifts
offshore by Monday with a moderating trend commencing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is centered offshore at sunrise this morning. VFR
flying weather in place over area terminals will persist
through the 12z TAF period. Mainly clear early this morning,
with some sct mid to high clouds this afternoon. S winds 5-10
kt should become SW with time later this morning and through
tonight, ahead of the next cold frontal passage. Could see some
gusts 20-25 kt late this morning and this afternoon, highest N
where the pressure gradient will be tightest. Low-level wind
shear develops across the terminals after 00z tonight/early
Friday, gradually easing with onset of diurnal mixing Friday
morning.

Outlook: A cold front drops N-S across the area from Friday
late morning into Friday afternoon. A wind shift from SW to NNE
will accompany the front. Showers are expected to develop behind
the front across the area Friday aftn into Friday evening,
ending from N to S late Fri night. Brief flight restrictions are
possible in the wake of the cold front, likely coinciding with
the rain Friday evening. VFR conditions return later Friday
night, and prevail over the weekend and through Monday, as cool
high pressure builds into and across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase later today into tonight ahead of an
  approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisories have been
  issued for the Bay, Lower James, and northern Coastal Waters.
  A brief lull is expected Friday morning.

- The cold front will bring elevated northeasterly winds Friday
  afternoon into the day on Saturday, likely warranting
  additional SCAs.

Current early morning analysis shows high pressure well offshore of
the local area with a cold front draped across the Great Lakes
region. A few 15-20kt S/SW gusts are out there this morning and will
likely persist through sunrise. The cold front will begin to
approach the Mid-Atlantic region from the NW throughout the day
today, tightening the pressure gradient overhead. This will create
gusty southerly winds for the local waters later this
afternoon/evening. Current guidance indicates winds reaching Small
Craft Advisory thresholds across the Chesapeake Bay and Lower James
River after sunset this evening - thus, SCAs have been issued
beginning at 8pm. Additionally, seas will build to 5-6 ft across the
northern coastal waters tonight. SCAs have been issued for north of
Cape Charles for the elevated seas through noon Friday. The forecast
gets tricky after that because there will likely be brief lull in
gustiness...brief enough to allow a break in the SCAs to account for
the switch in wind direction behind the cold frontal passage.

As the cold front moves through Friday morning/early afternoon,
winds will abruptly shift out of the north/northeast. Can`t rule out
some gale-force gusts right along the front, per usual, Friday
afternoon. SCAs will need to be issued for this uptick in winds in
upcoming forecast packages as confidence in winds reaching criteria
for most, if not all, local waters is increasing. A secondary surge
will push in Friday night/early Saturday morning allowing the
gustiness to persist through most of the daytime hours of Saturday.
Local wind probabilities have decreased slightly as of the latest
run, but there is still a 25-35% chance of gale conditions for the
coastal waters from Cape Charles south into NC briefly Saturday
morning. Seas will be 3-5 ft (higher farther offshore) with waves in
the Bay reaching 3-4 ft (possibly 4-5 ft in the Mouth of the Bay).
High pressure will build into the region later Saturday allowing the
winds to diminish, and subsequently, the seas and waves to subside
back to 2-3 ft and 1-2 ft respectively for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for ANZ630>632-634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday
     for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...JKP